ANALYSIS: Despite enduring vastly different domestic
seasons, bookmakers William Hill give the Serie A leaders the same
chance of qualification as a mid-table Bundesliga side
Juventus being drawn against Borussia Dortmund is one of the most interesting ties of the Champions League last 16.
Massimiliano Allegri's side have established a nine-point cushion at the top of Serie A and are well on course to picking up their fourth consecutive Scudetto. Dortmund, meanwhile, long gave up aspirations of challenging Bayern Munich for the Bundesliga title.
Jurgen Klopp's men needed recent wins over Mainz and Freiburg just to climb out of the relegation zone. They've tasted defeat 11 times in their 21 Bundesliga games thus far this season, a series of performances that were branded "pathetic" by captain Mats Hummels earlier in the campaign. Only the bottom two clubs, Hertha Berlin and Stuttgart, have worse records in terms of losses.
From a betting perspective, backing the 2012 Bundesliga champions domestically this season has been an expensive venture, despite a recent resurgence which has seen them record three consecutive victories for the first time.
Klopp's side have failed to win a staggering 13 league matches when they've been the pre-match odds-on favourites according to William Hill. Injuries have played a part in a disastrous domestic campaign but there are deeper underlying problems which the recent victories over three teams in the bottom half have done little to eradicate. The four goals conceded in their last two games is proof of that.
With the contrast in domestic performance this season, it could come as a surprise that bookmakers are offering the same price of 5/6 (1.83) for either Juventus or Dortmund qualifying for the quarter finals.
While the 2013 Champions League finalists have saved their best performances this season for the European stage, the respect shown to them by bookmakers seems unusual given the improved quality of opposition.
Ominously for Dortmund, Juventus don't just lead Serie A, they've dominated the division. The Old Lady haven't tasted defeat in the league since October 2014, while Klopp's side have been beaten five times in 13 Bundesliga games in the same period.
That 1-0 loss to Genoa remains Juve's only blemish in a league campaign which not only consists of a win rate above 70 per cent, but has seen them score the most goals (51) and concede the least (13) in the division.
Paul Pogba's development at the Juventus Stadium has made him one of the most coveted players in the world. Accompanied by the likes of a combative Arturo Vidal and the creative force of Andrea Pirlo, the Italian side present a potent midfield unit, guarding a staunch defence that conceded just four times in six Champions League group stage matches.
Going forward the impressive recent form of Carlos Tevez should give the last remaining Italian side in the competition a real shot of troubling Europe's best sides.
That Dortmund deserve a place in the last 16 is unquestionable. Their European performances have been a shining light in an otherwise underwhelming campaign. The bookmakers' quotes about their chances of progression are a well-timed gamble on Klopp's men having turning their season around at the optimal moment - but they could equally be a serious overestimation of their European credentials.
Source: Goal.com
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